February 4, 2026 – This morning’s quarterly revenue forecast shows a modest but meaningful improvement in Oregon’s overall fiscal outlook. Stronger-than-expected corporate income tax receipts, now understood to be more persistent rather than one-time, combined with improved economic output and profits, have increased General Fund revenues by $120.9 million. When paired with a higher beginning balance, total available General Fund resources have improved by $252.7 million, with an ending balance of $197.9 million projected for the close of the biennium.
At the same time, personal income tax growth for tax year 2024 came in softer than anticipated, underscoring ongoing uncertainty for household-driven revenues. Outside the General Fund, lottery earnings and Corporate Activity Tax revenues have improved, while marijuana tax revenues are slightly lower than prior expectations.
While this forecast reflects a more stable near-term revenue picture, it does not eliminate the structural pressures facing public services. The state still faces a $15 billion shortfall due to reduced federal revenue that is projected to occur in the 2027-29 biennium, primarily due to cuts in Medicaid and SNAP. For Oregon’s community colleges, this reinforces the importance of protecting existing investments and maintaining stability through the remainder of the biennium as colleges continue to respond to enrollment shifts, workforce demands, and rising operating costs.